Free and fair elections in Ukraine: Viktor versus Viktor

November 21, 2004

Today is Doomsday. Experts say the hour of choice has arrived for the country.Ukraine’s population is divided between the nationalist western provinces and the overwhelming Russified eastern ones. For years and years, Ukraine has balanced cautiously between Russia – which provides subsidized energy and raw materials – and the ‘promise’ of integration with the EU. Today a choice has to be made, that's for sure. 

More than 20 candidates were on the ballot for the first round of voting October 31. Only two candidates survived the first round of Ukraine’s presidential elections, Mr Yanukovych  and Mr Yushchenko. Neither candidate managed to get enough votes to win the first round. Ukraine’s Central Election Commission (CEC) declared that Mr Viktor Yushchenko won 39.87% of the vote against Prime Minister Viktor Yanukovych’s 39.32%. As you can see, it was a real neck-and-neck race, but appearances are deceiving.

So, let me introduce you to these ‘fine young gentlemen’. Let’s start with Mr Yanukovych, the Prime Minister and choice of Mr Kuchma, the outgoing president who is required by law to step down when his second term ends in December. Mr Yanukovych is a career bureaucrat backed by big industrialists closely linked with Russia. Unfortunately, he would drag Ukraine back into Russia’s orbit.

Mr Yanukovych was sent to a juvenile jail as a teenager in 1968. In 1970 he was also imprisoned for causing serious physical damage.  I would definitely vote for him!

Mr Yushchenko, a former head of the central bank and prime minister, says he will accelerate economic reforms to prepare for Ukraine’s yearned-for entry into the EU. A Yushchenko victory could guarantee an invitation to join NATO at its next summit and force the EU to take a more positive and serious approach towards Ukraine.

It has been a dirty campaign, that’s for sure. The campaign has been marred by claims of media bias, intimidation by the authorities and even an alleged assassination attempt, correspondents say. The media coverage has been heavily in Mr Yanukovych’s favour. The state television channels regularly give glowing reports on activities of the president and prime minister while avoiding positive coverage of the opposition.

The authorities tried to poison Yushchenko in an attempt to silence him. It was worth trying, I suppose.  Human rights groups say that Yushchenko activists are often harassed by police and prevented from media access.

Many Ukrainians could not vote because of mistakes on the electoral rolls, while others seem to have voted more than once. Officials on local electoral commissions are said to have been intimidated.

Western observers criticised these failings, as did the EU and the US. OSCE observers had said the first round failed to meet international standards. A poll conducted by the Democratic Initiatives Foundation found that 67 percent of Ukrainians think that the presidential election campaign is being conducted unfairly.

Earlier this month, Mr Putin arrived in Kiev for a three-day election-eve visit. He openly backed Mr Yanukovych during an hourlong interview broadcast on Ukraine’s three main TV channels. He praised Yanukovych’s government for achieving stable economic growth. Putin surely would welcome Mr Yanukovych as an autocratic leader who would lean towards an increasingly autocratic Russia.Wake up everybody, Ukraine’s future is at stake!

Earlier this week, the two Viktors have clashed in a live TV debate. Both opponents challenged each other with accusations of corruption and incompetence during the nearly two-hour debate. However, according to experts, the debate had hardly any affect on the voting preferences.

It will be a certain ‘Viktory’, but for whom? I won’t bet my money on it.

Hold on a minute. Newsflash. At this moment in time I’ve just turned on television, and guess what… He won! Yushchenko has won! Mr Yushchenko is predicted to get 58% of the vote, against 39% for the Prime Minister, Viktor Yanukovych. Victory for democracy?

However, let’s not go too fast. It could take some time for the final figures are known. Moreover, both sides have complained of problems during the voting. Fraud ? That seems quite likely to me. Furthermore, this morning a policeman has been killed while he was guarding ballot papers in a village in central Ukraine.

Let’s pray and hope there will be no revolution. Kiev is on high alert, with extra police and soldiers on the streets. Ukraine's CEC is being guarded by at least four water cannons. Tens of thousands of opposition supporters have taken to the streets by way of precaution, in case Mr Yanukovych would claim the victory.

Difficult times lie ahead of us. I think there might be some riots as the formal results will be announced. Chaos? Revolution?

Anyway, I’m going to bed now hoping democracy will survive in Ukraine.

November 22, 2004

Was it a nightmare? Somebody pinch me, please. It is really a bitter pill for me to swallow.

The CEC said with more than 99% of the vote counted, Mr Yanukovych had 49.4% while Mr Yushchenko had 46.7%. The opposition, the OSCE and many western observers have recorded many thousands of irregularities, including very high turnouts in government strongholds. They do not believe the official turnout figure of 96% in eastern Ukraine. Exit polls earlier suggested that Mr Yushchenko had been on course for victory with a lead of at least six percentage points.

Fraud, fraud, fraud! Mr Yushchenko told thousands of people who braved sub-zero temperatures in the capital, Kiev, not to leave the rally until victory. All peaceful so far, but that can cannot last much longer, I suppose.

Riots, chaos, revolution? Let’s claim that victory Mr Yushchenko, your victory, victory for democracy!

The EU and Ukraine: ‘everybody needs good neighbours’

On May 1 this year, the EU expanded from 15 to 25 member states. This historic expansion has made the EU and Ukraine neighbours. However, the EU enlargement raises important questions. How much further can the EU enlarge? Should the EU encompass geographic ‘Europe’ or should they stop ‘at a certain point’?

Well, article 49 of the Treaty on European Union clearly allows any geographically based European state to apply for membership. Ow, I almost forgot, furthermore that European state has to meet certain criteria on adhering to the ‘common values’ (as outlined in Article 6)…

So, is Ukraine then eligible? In 2001 the European Parliament supported Ukraine’s membership. In contrast the EU still continues to fudge any answer to this question. Let’s consider some pros and cons whether Ukraine can join ‘the happy family’.

The first reason why Ukraine needs greater attention on the part of the EU is its geostrategic importance. We cannot neglect the fact that Ukraine’s geostrategic position between Russia and East-Central Europe, its neighbourhood of the Caucasus and its control of the northern coast of the  Black Sea adjacent to Turkey, place Ukraine in a key location to influence peace and stability in Europe. As you should all know, Ukraine now borders three (Poland, Slovakia and Hungary) and soon to be four ( Romania is expected –together with Bulgaria-to join the ‘gang of 25’ in 2007) new EU members. All four of these are or will soon be NATO members. That maybe will offer some prospects for Ukraine to also join the NATO within a few years and even the EU in the long term…

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Hold on, I’m losing track over here. Another argument to’ let Ukraine in’ is the fact that its (transition) record remains one of the best in the CIS[1]. Moreover it is not that different from the laggard of Central and Eastern Europe, Romania! In addition Ukraine’s record is certainly better than that of the Western Balkans. Now, why do I refer to Romania and the Western Balkans? First of all because Romania will soon be a member of the EU, while the EU has never offered membership to Ukraine! Ukraine keeps asking and asking for a clear signal from the EU; to which the EU indifferently responds by saying Ukraine has to prove itself first. Isn’t it ironic?

And what about the Western Balkans? Well, the EU offers an ‘open-door’ policy to the Western Balkans provided that they prove their commitment to the ‘common values’. Unfortunately, the door remains closed to Ukraine. Ukraine’s positive record in the treatment of national minorities has been long recognised by the OSCE[2] and the Council of Europe which cannot be said of the fate of ethnic minorities within the Western Balkans… Moreover, there is no guarantee that even if Ukraine proves its commitment to the ‘common values’, the EU will open the door to future membership!

Let’s not forget Turkey! Turkey is officially a candidate, then again in a geographical sense, only 5% belongs to Europe. It is beyond doubt that Ukraine geographically belongs to Europe!

But, it’s not all roses there. First of all Ukraine remains one of the poorest countries of Europe. The standard of living in Ukraine is equivalent to 15% of the current EU-average.

Secondly, in an economic view the trade with Ukraine amounts to merely 0,42% of the total EU- trade volume.

Let’s consider the ‘Russia-factor’, this may be a little bit complex so let’s tackle it brief and to the point. Russia does not seek EU-membership and is satisfied with the ‘integration not accession path’ as offered by the European Commission in 2003. The EU rules out membership for Ukraine because this may be seen to require giving the same option to Russia. Closer cooperation between Ukraine and the EU implies a rejection of communism, Eurasia and the USSR. Of course this is considered in Russia as being also a rejection of Russia as a whole. Russia still aims to maintain Ukraine within a ‘Russian sphere of influence’. Therefore the admission of Ukraine to the EU would imply the isolation of Russia…

Unfortunately, in Ukraine there are still some considerable problems regarding the worsening state of media freedom, corruption, respect for human rights and the rule of law,… Ukraine’s democracy is put to the test, certainly if we refer to the presidential elections which will culminate next Sunday…

It’s obvious, a lot of work has to be done! That doesn’t alter the fact that the EU really should reconsider to offer Ukraine- in the long term though- a place within the club!